Don't Book Those 2010 Seats Yet

by Peter Kratzel - June 14, 2008

 
▪ Match Report: 'Nats Draw Argentina

World Cup Qualifying starts for the US Men's National Team this weekend with a home match against Barbados in the Home Depot Center starting the two-legged affair on the 15th. In preparation, Bob Bradley sent his chosen troops to face three of the world's top soccer powerhouses in England, Spain, and Argentina in friendlies.

▪ ASD Match Report: Spain Edges US
▪ ASD Match Report: 3 Lions Top US
 

Many pundits have already written about how the USMNT started poor but finished strong, turning what could only be described as one of the worst performances ever by a modern (post 1990) US side (against England) to a respectable showing against the #1 ranked team in the world (Argentina) which nonetheless ended up as a scoreless draw.

Although the fact remains that the 'Nats act homesick nearly every time they play on European soil, and that they save their best performances for the green green grass of home, did not seem to affect the collective media opinion that this team is okay and on track for another successful World Cup Qualifying run. Quite frankly, this is one so-called pundit who does not share this view, as the old saying goes; "no matter how much lipstick you put on this pig."

In fact, I posit to you, oh diehard American soccer fan, that something is not entirely right with this team. In fact, even though the Red, White, & Blue has qualified for every World Cup finals since 1990, a streak equaled by only some the top teams in the world, the following needs to be heard by US fans everywhere, loud and clear:

This team is not guaranteed to clinch a world cup berth in 2010.

Don't believe it? Think this is just being made up to generate press space and vent about the recent poor performances? Trust me, this is serious, and it's so ominous, it bears repeating again:

This team is not guaranteed to clinch a world cup berth in 2010.

Now, of course there will be those who say 'of course it's not a cinch, that's why they play the games'. But how many fans out there doubt for a second that the US would not be one of the three teams to clinch an automatic berth to the finals? It's been almost a given for so many years that no one takes the thought of not qualifying seriously.

They should take heed this time around, primarily due to two factors; 1) this squad is not playing as well, for club or country, as previous US Men's National Teams, and 2) The rest of CONCACAF has seen a marked increase in quality. A closer look reveals some unfortunate truths.

Individually, for the majority of the usual starters in a USMNT shirt, this past season has been a disaster, due either to injury, a drop in playing form or just the fact that some of our most promising players can't even get a game for their respective European teams.

The injury bug hit players such as Glasgow Rangers winger DaMarcus Beasley, who tore knee ligaments in a Champions League encounter last November. Sheffield Wednesday's Frankie Simek busted his ankle in January, and is still trying to regain the form that had him discussed in a possible $6 million transfer to the Premiership last summer.

While Beasley looks to be well on his way to recovery, and the preferred choice on either the left or right wing to Reading's Bobby Convey, who had a very difficult season for a team that was relegated in the last week of the season.

Simek, on the other hand, looks to have lost his place behind ever-reliable right back Steve Cherundolo to MLS veteran Frankie Hejduk. This is very unfortunate as the Sheffield Wednesday player was quite impressive in last year's Gold Cup final dealing with the very dangerous Nery Castillo.

Benny Feilhaber highlights the next group of players, the ones who have either had a drop in their standard or their teams just don't like them anymore. Until a recent injury that will force him to miss the Olympics in Beijing, he could not even command a place on the bench for English side Derby County, a team so bad they set a record for the least points ever in an Premiership season.

There were a grand total of 10 appearances in a Rams shirt for the Brazilian-born, California-raised midfielder, and most were near the start of the campaign under old manager Billy Davies.

Once ex-Wigan manager Paul Jewell took over at Derby, Feilhaber couldn't get past the reserve team. Things got so bad that Jewell promised to sell Benny at the first opportunity, and then promptly rejected the first bid that came in for him from Maccabi Tel-Aviv.

One promising aside from the nightmare that was Feilhaber's 2007-2008 campaign was the fact that US teammate Eddie Lewis played an integral piece of the Derby squad this past season, and has actually impressed in appearances for both club and country. Now I have to confess I was not completely sold on having Lewis in the squad after Bruce Arena though he could play left back in the 2006 World Cup, a decision everyone regretted only five minutes into the first group game against the Czech Republic. But, on a positive note, having a veteran influence will be sorely needed in qualifying phases.

Freddy Adu is another case of a promising American player mired on the depth chart of a European team, unable to showcase any of his talents.

Although to be fair, the manager who brought Adu over to Portuguese side Benfica was fired just one game into the season, and the former DC United player had to endure another managerial change as the Eagles finished fourth in the Portuguese Liga , and qualified for the UEFA Champions League third round qualifying stage only because champions Porto were excluded from the competition after having been found guilty of bribing referees during the 2003-04 campaign (when "the special one," Jose Mourinho, was manager).

I had the opportunity to speak with Freddy after Benfica's Champion's league group defeat to Celtic at Glasgow's Parkhead stadium last November, and he was upbeat about his chances of breaking into the first team. He had actually saved more than his fair share of games by coming on as a substitute and scoring late goals. But again, like Feilhaber, Freddy's playing time diminished as the season wore on, at the end just nabbing 11 appearances for the Eagles.

Perhaps no team saw their Red, White, & Blue contingent either succumb to the injury bug or just plain poor play as what has become known as the "Team America" in the Premiership. I am referring, of course, to the West London club Fulham, who had a grand total of five Americans on their roster for the previous playing campaign.

The Cottagers barely avoided relegation to the Championship in the last two weeks of the season, and new manager Roy Hodgson came on board in January to try and put some steel back in a squad that always seemed to give up the late goal to lose the game. At one point in the season, stats geeks had noted that if all soccer games in the Premiership had ended at 80 minutes, Fulham would have been a top six club.

In order to avoid relegation, Hodgson first started pairing Yanks Brian McBride and Eddie Johnson up front, sending Clint Dempsey to the bench. Kasey Keller was the mainstay behind goal, but defender and former Chicago Fire star Carlos Bocanegra was relegated to the substitutes bench, as Hodgson bought new defenders in the January transfer window specifically for the purpose of replacing him. Carlos never regained his starting position, and has now been released by Fulham.

Johnson provided the same type of performances for Fulham that he has given the National Team over the last few years, plenty of hustle, running into channels, breaking free from defenders, and no end product. Right or wrong, strikers are judged on how many goals they score, and fast Eddie simply hasn't done that for what seems like an eternity.

Dempsey was clearly worn down by Fulham's season, as evidenced by his less than stellar performance for the Nats against England in Wembley. McBride asked for his release so he could go back to the States, where he is expected to sign with the Fire in MLS, although no one really knows why it's taking so long to get the deal done.

There are others worth mentioning, like West Ham's Jonathan Spector (who was a key cog in this year's US Olympic squad before an injury), Watford's Jay DeMerit (the Rodney Dangerfield of the US squad - "I tell ya, I just can't get no respect") and Josh Wolff, who could only find the net twice in 34 appearances for a second division German side (1860 Munich), and found himself waived after the season ended.

All the players mentioned above, with the exceptions of McBride and Keller, aren't just bit players in the National Team setup, they have played a major role in all the recent friendlies (Feilhaber was due to report to the Olympic squad until he hurt his knee, but would have been part of this squad normally).

How much faith do you put in a squad who have struggled as mightily as this group has over the past year? For all the chatter about how the squad improved against Spain and Argentina (all video of the England match should be burned, it's the only way to preserve sanity), this team, with Wolff/Donovan/Adu/Johnson up front, scored a grand total of ZERO goals.

I can accept that the level of competition was high, but then that means we are in danger of accepting ourselves as a lower tier nation, incapable of playing with the big boys. That is not the mindset I want Bob Bradley to instill in his troops. It relegates the national team to what BBC pundit Mark Lawrenson called them during the England friendly; 'spoilers'.

As if the squad weren't enough to worry about, the CONCACAF region is one with a different look than the one the US team waltzed through four years ago. Mexico have to be considered the favorites to win the final group of six as the great players they have had coming through the youth ranks start to realize their potential with the senior squad. They still have the very fortunate (for the US) habit of making critical mistakes on US soil, but with Sven-Goran Eriksson now in charge of the Mexican squad, they will be a tough test.

Honestly, no one expected that Mexico would not be strong competition in the group, and there is no shame in the US finishing second as it still guarantees an all expenses paid trip to South Africa. And you can expect the Costa Rican squad to provide their usual fiery competitiveness as they seek to qualify for their third straight tournament, although they are not the same squad as in past years, with their latest FIFA ranking have seen the "La Sele" slip to 77th.

No, it's not the Mexicans or Costa Ricans we should be worried about. It's countries who have not previously presented a threat in the last eight years: Honduras, Canada, Cuba and Panama.

By far, Honduras represents the biggest threat to US hopes in 2010. Compare the list of European based Americans previously mentioned with Hondurans like David Suazo, a starter for Italian champions Inter Milan, and Wigan Athletic's Wilson Palacios, whose skills have been noticed by powerhouses such as Manchester United, who have been rumored to put in a bid of $16 million for him. That doubles the highest any team have paid for an American player (Jozy Altidore's recent move from New York Red Bull to Spanish La Liga side Villarreal was in the $8 million range).

Wigan has two other Hondurans on its roster, Maygnor Figueroa and Hendry Thomas, though neither have had the impact that Palacios has had in his first season at the JJB.

And don't forget that Toronto FC star Amado Guevara is the captain of the Los Catrachos, who, when his head is on straight, is quite possibly the best player in MLS.

Canada may not have the star power of Honduras, but they have a squad that are increasingly finding their way into European clubs, whether it's Atiba Hutchinson, who provides the pace down the right flank for FC Copenhagen, or Julian De Guzman, who became the first Canadian to play in the Spanish La Liga in 2005 for Deportivo la Coruna.

Fans may also recall the Gold Cup semifinal in 2007 where Hutchinson scored the tying goal in the dying minutes only to have it ruled offside, a decision that even the most diehard US fan would accept as unfair to our northern cousins.

Cuba and Panama are two teams who may not present serious challenges to the US attempts to qualify, but both sides play an attacking brand of futbol that can take opponents off guard. In many instances, it only takes one early goal for a lesser opponent to shut up shop and hold on for dear life. Greece used this philosophy to win Euro 2004 in Portugal, one of the biggest shocks of recent memory.

So as the US prepares to steamroll Barbados this weekend, fans should watch closely for the little things that make a good team better; flowing soccer, pressing on the attack and keeping the pedal down when a lead is in hand. At this stage, mental state is an important factor.

Finally, there should be no reason this team does not qualify for South Africa, as there is superior talent to the rest of the region, excepting Mexico. But it's not always about talent, remember, this team is not a cinch. That's a mindset that will serve them well in this early phase.

Early predictions for the final qualifying group of six: Mexico, US, Canada, Honduras, Costa Rica, and Panama, with Cuba and Trinidad & Tobago just on the outside looking in. Don't be surprised if one of those two pushes out Costa Rica.

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